Climate extremes
In recent years, the Mediterranean region has experienced a sharp increase in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, including severe droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and storms. These events, driven by climate change, pose significant risks to both human populations and the environment, disrupting ecosystems, damaging infrastructure, and threatening livelihoods. The interconnected nature of these events means that one disaster often triggers others, creating cascading effects that exacerbate the overall impact.

Our motivation for studying these climate extremes is to better understand the underlying drivers and interactions, allowing us to predict and mitigate their impacts. By leveraging the Mediterranean Digital Twin (MDT), we integrate advanced AI models with Earth System Models (ESMs) to simulate highly constrained atmospheric processes. This combination of data-driven AI and physics-based modelling enables us to enhance the accuracy of climate extreme predictions. Additionally, causal analysis techniques allow us to uncover the relationships between different extreme events—such as how heatwaves and droughts can lead to wildfires, which in turn may trigger flash floods or landslides. This comprehensive approach not only improves forecasting but also provides critical insights for developing proactive strategies, supporting climate adaptation, and strengthening resilience to the growing challenges of climate change.